Weekly Commentary, June 11th

The Markets

Add another country to the European bailout list.

Over the weekend, Spain requested up to $125 billion in bailout money to shore up its ailing banks, according to Bloomberg. Spain’s banks and the country’s economy are reeling from the bursting of a massive property bubble. Things are so bad in Spain that the country is back in recession and nearly 25 percent of the country’s workers are unemployed, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Spain matters because it’s the fourth largest economy in the euro zone and if it goes bust, it may create chaos in euro land.

Fortunately, if all goes according to plan, the new bailout money may be enough to reassure investors that Spain won’t go the way of Greece. Speaking of Greece, the next big event in the ongoing euro zone debt crisis takes place this coming Sunday when Greece holds a new election. Depending on who wins, it could lead to “Grexit”—which means Greece leaving the euro. There is no precedent for a country leaving the euro so if it happens with Greece, we’re in unchartered territory.

Back in the states, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke last week and said, “The situation in Europe poses significant risks to the U.S. financial system and economy and must be monitored closely.” He went on to say, “The Federal Reserve remains prepared to take action as needed to protect the U.S. financial system and economy in the event that financial stresses escalate.” While he didn’t announce another round of quantitative easing, the markets were somewhat reassured that he might pull the trigger if the economy gets much worse.

And let’s not forget China. They just announced a surprise interest rate cut which “raised concerns over the state of the economy,” according to MarketWatch.

So here we are again, monitoring the situation in Europe, worrying about a hard landing in China, and analyzing whether the Federal Reserve will ride to the rescue and print more dollars. It keeps our job very interesting!

Data as of 6/8/12

1-Week

Y-T-D

1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks)

3.7%

5.4%

4.3%

12.2%

-2.5%

2.6%

DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks)

2.0

-3.4

-20.2

2.9

-7.3

4.0

10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)

1.6

N/A

3.0

3.9

5.1

5.0

Gold (per ounce)

-1.8

0.1

2.5

18.7

19.2

17.2

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

1.6

-8.5

-22.5

0.8

-5.4

3.0

DJ Equity All REIT TR Index

4.5

10.4

8.9

26.9

0.6

10.2

Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.

Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.  N/A means not applicable.

 

SOMETHING HAPPENED ON NOVEMBER 18, 2008 THAT HADN’T HAPPENED IN 50 YEARS—what was it and what are the implications for your portfolio?

Before we get to the answer, we need a brief review of history. Up until 1958, the dividend yield on common stocks was higher than the yield on bonds. This seemed to make sense because stocks were generally riskier than bonds and in order to entice investors to buy stocks, they had to be incented with a higher yield. But in 1958, that flipped. Stock prices rose, the dividend yield fell and the yield on bonds became higher than stocks. For the next 50 years, this relationship remained as bonds continued to out-yield stocks.

Then, on November 18, 2008, the relationship reversed as stocks delivered a higher dividend yield than bonds. This was just a brief flirtation and the relationship flipped again shortly thereafter and bonds resumed their usual higher-yielding status.

Now, with the dramatic decline in bond yields, stocks are doing that rare thing and delivering a higher yield than bonds, according to the Financial Times.

Here are several thoughts on the implications of stocks yielding more than bonds.

(1)   Investors are more risk averse. With bond yields extremely low, this suggests investors are more concerned about safety than double-digit returns.

(2)   Bond prices are at an extreme level. With 10-year Treasury yields having recently touched an all-time record low, there may not be much room for them to go lower—since 0 percent is the floor.

(3)   Government intervention may be distorting the normal relationship between bonds and stocks. Heavy bond buying by the Federal Reserve could be artificially depressing bond yields and rendering some of the traditional market relationships moot.

(4)   Investor psychology may change over time. Prior to 1958, investors wanted a higher yield from stocks because stocks were riskier. Then, over the next 50 years, bonds had a higher yield as investors became comfortable with the idea that stocks offered a yield plus a chance for capital appreciation—even with more volatility. And now, we’re back to risk averse investors seeking higher yields from stocks.

Sources: Financial Times, BusinessWeek

From an investment standpoint, seeing a major change in a long-term trend like the yield relationship between bonds and stocks suggests we may be at an extreme level in bonds and stocks. And while nobody knows how long it may take for this relationship to return to a more traditional level, we’ll try to find ways to profit from it on your behalf.

Weekly Focus – Think About It…

“And so with the sunshine and the great bursts of leaves growing on the trees, just as things grow in fast movies, I had that familiar conviction that life was beginning over again with the summer.”

–F. Scott Fitzgerald, author

Best regards,

John Raudat

Canoga Wealth Management, LLC

P.S.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues.

* Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.

* This newsletter was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

* The DJ Global ex US is an unmanaged group of non-U.S. securities designed to reflect the performance of the global equity securities that have readily available prices.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.

* The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results.

* You cannot invest directly in an index.

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-10/spain-s-bailout-gives-rajoy-best-chance-to-fix-banks.html

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303768104577458562351966868.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTTopStories

http://www.economist.com/node/21556583

http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20120607a.htm

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-economy-continues-to-cool-off-2012-06-09

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/aug2010/pi20100831_284999.htm

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d754f94c-a4ba-11e1-9908-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1wIWcUlBO

http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/summer

1-075214

John Raudat is a Registered Representative with, and securities offered through, LPL Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC.

Please remember to contact Private Advisor Group, LLC, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you want to impose, add, to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services, or if you wish to direct that Private Advisor Group, LLC effect any specific transactions for your account. Please be advised that there can be no assurance that any email request will be reviewed and/or acted upon on the day it is received-please be guided accordingly. A copy of our current written Disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available for your review upon request. Copyright 2011 – LPL Financial. All Rights Reserved.

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