Weekly Commentary, May 25th

The Markets

There wasn’t much to ‘Like’ in the financial markets last week as stocks took a hit on another round of global worries. High on the list of concerns were:

  • ·         Continuing anxiety over Greece’s ability to avoid default and remain in the euro.
  • ·         Rising borrowing costs for Italy and Spain.
  • ·         Ongoing fears of an economic slowdown in China.
  • ·         Loss of faith in the banking system due to JPMorgan’s $2 billion (and growing)  bad bet.
  • ·         A very tepid response to the highly anticipated stock market debut of Facebook.

Source: CNNMoney

Investors are particularly frustrated that the European debt situation keeps popping up like dandelions. After two years and 17 euro zone summits, the issue is still not resolved. In fact, it might be worse than ever as Europe is quickly running out of road to kick the can down, according to BusinessWeek.

Greece is at the epicenter of this worldwide concern despite the fact that its population is less than the state of Ohio. Like the subprime crisis before it, investors are concerned that Greece may be the falling domino that kicks off a series of undesirable effects. If Greece has a disorderly collapse, it could spread to other weak European countries and then ripple out to the rest of the world.

Unfortunately, the time for easy solutions has long passed. Central banks and governments around the world have already added trillions of dollars to their balance sheets so they don’t have much room to maneuver. And, here in the U.S., we have a potentially bruising election and looming tax and fiscal matters to deal with by the end of the year.

When you add it up, 2012 is on track to be another dramatic year in world affairs.

Data as of 5/18/12

1-Week

Y-T-D

1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

Standard & Poor’s 500 (Domestic Stocks)

-4.3%

3.0%

-2.9%

12.5%

-3.2%

1.7%

DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks)

-6.1

-2.8

-20.5

5.0

-7.4

3.7

10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)

1.7

N/A

3.2

3.2

4.8

5.2

Gold (per ounce)

0.4

1.0

6.2

20.0

19.3

17.7

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

0.9

-3.3

-16.5

4.3

-4.7

3.2

DJ Equity All REIT TR Index

-6.7

6.0

2.7

27.7

0.2

9.9

Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.

Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.  N/A means not applicable.

 

WOULD YOU GIVE YOUR MONEY TO THE U.S. GOVERNMENT for 10 years and lock in a negative yield? Well, that’s exactly what happened last week as investors handed over $13 billion to the government and, in return, received 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). These securities were sold at a record low negative yield of 0.39 percent, according to The Wall Street Journal.

TIPS are a bit different from traditional government securities because, “The principal of a TIPS increases with inflation and decreases with deflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. When a TIPS matures, you are paid the adjusted principal or original principal, whichever is greater,” according to the Treasury Department.

Now, why would anybody buy a TIPS with a negative yield when they could buy a traditional 10-year government security with a yield of about 1.7 percent last week? The answer lies in the difference between the two yields.

As reported by Bloomberg, the yield difference between a 10-year TIPS and a comparable 10-year Treasury security was 2.04 percentage points on May 17. Analysts call this the “break even inflation rate.” It means investors were expecting inflation to average 2.04 percent over the next 10 years. When you add the 2.04 percent expected inflation rate to the negative 0.39 percent yield of a TIPS, you get close to the yield of a traditional 10-year government security.

From an investment standpoint, if inflation averages more than 2.04 percent over the next 10 years, then owning TIPS might be a better deal than owning the traditional 10-year government security. Likewise, if inflation averages less than 2.04 percent over the next 10 years, then owning the traditional 10-year security might be better, according to The Vanguard Group.

With its built-in inflation protection component, TIPS are traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation rather than a play on interest income.

As an advisor, it’s important for us to know the break even inflation rate that is embedded in TIPS. Knowing the market’s best estimate of inflation provides data we can use to help us value and analyze other investments that may be affected by changes in investors’ inflation expectations.

Weekly Focus – Did You Know…

There is only one word in the English language with all five vowels in reverse order. Try to guess what it is before reading below for the answer.

Source: http://www.byfaith.co.uk/paul2028.htm

The answer is “subcontinental.”

Best regards,

 

John Raudat

Canoga Wealth Management, LLC

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P.S.  Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues.

Securities offered through  LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC.

* This newsletter was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

* The DJ Global ex US is an unmanaged group of non-U.S. securities designed to reflect the performance of the global equity securities that have readily available prices.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by the London Bullion Market Association.

* The DJ Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results.

* You cannot invest directly in an index.

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

**Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are subject to market risk and significant interest rate risk as their longer duration makes them more sensitive to price declines associated with higher interest rates.

Sources:

http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/18/markets/stocks/index.htm?iid=HP_LN
http://www.euronews.com/2012/01/30/eu-leaders-hold-debt-crisis-summit-again
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-05-18/s-and-p-500-falls-at-3-times-2011-rate-as-may-losses-deepen
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120517-711941.html
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/products/prod_tips_glance.htm
https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/flgpt.pdf

1-070038

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Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member NASD/SIPC and advisory services offered through

Securities America Advisors, Inc., John A. Raudat, representative.

Canoga Wealth Management and Securities America are unaffiliated.

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